The impact of COVID‐19 on the grains and oilseeds sector: 12 months later

Brewin (2020) was optimistic about the fate of Canadian grains and oilseeds sector in 2020 as COVID-19 pandemic descended on world. The did generate a large crop and, towards end 2020, saw lift prices. This contributed to record farm income Canada 2020. pace grain oilseed exports ethanol demand east were affected by COVID-19, but forecast “near normal” relatively accurate. Production prices stayed track, largely because world not impose significant new barriers trade cereals these sectors have distanced labor virtually every step supply chain which protected markets from this pandemic. dominant price factor for remains global that had been growing before relative production may stimulated deficit budgets around Compared tight stocks, minor impact led steady worldwide Canada. We are still waiting more evidence assess role federal coordination success Canada's past participation safety protocols based science allowed earn very good était optimiste quant au sort du secteur canadien des céréales et oléagineux en alors que la pandémie s'abattait sur le monde. Le généré une récolte importante et, vers fin de connu hausse prix. Cela contribué à un revenu agricole rythme exportations d'oléagineux perte demande d'éthanol dans l'est ont été touchés par mais prévision d'une année «presque normale» relativement précise. La les prix sont restés bonne voie, grande partie parce monde n'a pas imposé nouvelles barrières importantes commerce ces secteurs main-d'œuvre distancée pratiquement chaque étape chaîne d'approvisionnement ce qui protégé marchés cette pandémie. facteur pour reste mondiale avait augmenté avant rapport peut-être stimulée déficits budgétaires plusieurs régions Comparée aux stocks mondiaux serrés, eu mineur céréales, conduit stable Nous attendons toujours plus d’évidences évaluer rôle fédérale succès passée protocoles sécurité fondés permis gagner très bon In (2020), I suggested “a near normal year” my support estimates made Agriculture Agri-food March, Outlook Principal Field Crops. By time writing article, we already knew lot transmission virus chains most likely face problems. Gray correctly forecasted an improvement bulk transportation movement lower rail crews intermodal/container movements other commodities. left capacity move grain. Vercammen noted market expectations regarding eventual abatement short run surge flour longer term concerns. also drop used many people working home. Barichello reluctance hamper staples world's exporters major importers. predicted modest agreement with Agri-Food (AAFC) March report against any real threat provision staple foods important Value Chain Roundtables improve could help food quickly address border issues trucking avoid disruptions both imported foods. Previous policy supporting trading rules played protecting chain. AAFC 2019/20 ending spring wheat canola at 5.0 3.3 million tons within 5.1% actual stocks. These kinds shifts unlikely affect February, 2021 reporting average 2019/2020 year range forecasts wheat, canola, corn soybeans (AAFC, 2020; AAFC, 2021a).1 Actual according current estimates, 90.4 2021a). is above estimate 88.1 2021a), 3%; fair given vagaries weather between September (the month harvest over Canada). With historically high level into predicting incomes gains 2021b). all 13.3 stock Canadians never faced true shortage or cooking oil calories assuming well-functioning distribution system adequate incomes. Although others mentioned potential reduction their comments special issue (see Weersink al. (2020)), it overview last spring. outlook USDA increase production. June weekly gasoline US dropped below 80% five 10 weeks 60% 3 weeks. thus U.S. Figure 1 shows beginning 2014 up early 2021. clearly fuel through mandated shares, ethanol, Weekly (‘000 gallons) 2014-2021 Source: RFA (2021) Grain Growers flagged poor Ontario reason expanded government revenue insurance May 29th Standing Committee (Nielsen, 2020). According Statistics (2021a) monthly $212 per ton down 2.5% 9.3% higher than 5 2014–2019. rebound fall, eastern farmers triggered related events. There reports plant closures reduced Canada, increased EU biofuels form hand sanitizers industrial use total close (USDA, 2020/21 year, forecasts, 1% (AAFC 2021a).2 fell 9.8% 2018/19 levels staying low recent Total domestic fall As above, shipments due, least traffic. well, 2018 adjustments calculation eligible costs Maximum Revenue Entitlement (MRE) Transportation Act created separation firms certain fixed costs. MRE sets allowable rates export position tied It effectively encourages railways volumes tonne shipped. sparked immediate announcements investments efficient cars infrastructure. let them count fees hauling Thousands paid became part fleet coupled expansions terminals Vancouver added efficiency All helped handling 44.8 year. expected February 17, 50.2 tons. would be exports. improved means middle see bigger share below. futures contract delivery elevators Saskatoon. actually driven intermodal movement, remote buyers started some disposable buy manufacturing goods normally shipped containers cars. Certainly, traffic returned pre-COVID-19 late But even began grow 2 cyclical previous years, things picked reaching highs. Again, muted Monthly Railway Carloading, tonnes. 2018-2020 (2021c) commodity due institutional investors moving out equities agricultural assets uncertainty impacts COVID-19. commodities generally value lost Income growth developing trend bullish beyond. Chinese imports particularity robust Despite larger soybean crops has faster particularly low, 3.8 24.7 14.3 tonnes 2019/20, respectively. Even dollar prices, situation Manitoba 2015 spike now highest reached during financial crisis. Manitoba. $/ton. 2015-2021 MARD Similar discussed forward contracts much lower. ICE Canola 2022 $140 19% closing 1, Like market, low. Forecasted 700,000 78% summer Generally overridden negative caused A failing incorporation willingness central governments borrow meet basic needs wide spread unemployed under employed workers capita second third quarters (Statistics state responses years public debt grow, will off, household savings imposed retail shutdowns lead gets back normal. Many articles CJAE unrolling (Ker Cardwell, Long effects sorting themselves out. take 12 months confirm. Overall, policies protect manage numerous mitigated damages leveled market. rapid identification farming essential services key reducing access terms needed inputs Roundtables. feel concerns play preparing future crisis, difficult confirm without transparency. suffered less disruption routes remained open processing prone That always case. At official sanctions, pests seed China (Cardwell Brewin, 2019). Previously innocuous things, like flu virus, can potentially create havoc chains. BSE crisis beef us devastation when loses representing 50% its (CAFTA, 2021). producers 75% seeds products Imagine if completely shut off. Federal sector. benefited transparent discussions. Supply benefit same openness. While suggestion missed demands exports, end, after dip rise China, EU, health North America, quite spikes various input If those do materialize, remain extended period. make event interruptions greater. Bottlenecks our breakdowns restrictions represent greater losses coordinated effort industry regulators important. repeat request assessment designed coordination. quick response identify provides effective coordination, “more transparency work roundtables, national anxiety, welcome”.